Seasonal forecasting of drought conditions
Forecasting of climate and hydrological conditions one or more months in advance can provide crucial information for decision making in a range of sectors, helping reduce the risk of impacts from droughts and other climate and water related risks. For example:
Streamflow forecasts can be used for energy management, in the hydropower and thermoelectric electricity generation sectors.
Reservoir managers can release water if a flood is forecast, or save water if a drought is forecast.
Within the agricultural sector, seasonal forecasts of extreme events could enable farmers to make adaptive choices on types of crops, technology investment and labour usage to minimise the risks. Crop yield forecasting could help manage food storage and food security. Agricultural water use can be optimised – irrigation can be scheduled. Decisions could be made on when and what to plant for optimal yield. Sensitive tree crops can be covered against the risk of frost.
In the tourism sector, forecasts can help decision making about how to allocate resources and time opening of locations ( e.g. good weather, lake levels, snowfall, …)
Transport can benefit from information that can optimise routes and modes of transport.
Retail planning can use forecasts to plan stock and sales. For example: stock up on umbrellas, winter coats, summer wear, …
Long-term planning can draw from seasonal and extended forecasts: buy commodities, stockpile, invest in annual crops …
We have developed a seasonal hydrological forecast system, which predicts hydrological variables out to 6 months in advance. These include precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, runoff and streamflow; drought and flood probabilities; and other extremes such as the likelihood of heatwaves and cold spells. The system draws from climate forecasts from a set of global climate models, which are coupled to our hydrological models, which run at high-resolution for regions of interest around the world. The forecasts have been evaluated for their skill and reliability in reproducing historical climate and hydrological variability.
Figure 1. Example forecast of streamflow across Europe for the extreme drought and heatwave of August 2003, initialised on July 1st. The data are available from the EDgE project at http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/
